PB10 Baseline Analysis The Epistemology of Scenario Development, Peter Bishop

The core principle of strategic foresight is that the future is multiple not singular. Futurists describe the future as a set of plausible alternatives (scenarios) rather than as the single-valued prediction that other forecasters prefer. Policy makers and the public at large prefer predictions because they are simple and easy to grasp. Predictions are singular just like the present or at least the way people experience it. If there is to be one present in the future, then it seems logical that there is one future that will become that present and that the task of forecasting is to figure out which one of it is. And finally, people prefer predictions because they are supported by evidence, just like inferences in history and science. Predicting the future is seen as the application of modern science to human affairs.