PB8 Framework Forecasting, Peter Bishop

University of Houston, Framework Forecasting
Managing Uncertainty and Influencing the Future

Second Prague Workshop On Futures Studies Methodology
Charles University, Czech Republic
October 2005

The methods of futures studies deal with change in all its variety, and for two purposes: to understand change and to influence it. Understanding change means describing expected and other plausible future states, for which we need to prepare. Influencing change means to bring about the best possible future for ourselves and others given the time and resources we have available. People who understand the dynamics of change and the changes that are going on around them are not often surprised. People who then influence those dynamics toward their vision of a better future will have a greater change of getting that better future.